Apologist? No. Realist? Yes.
Tim and I seem to agree on most things with regard to the Texans' first round pick. We agree that the Texans blew it by choosing David Carr over Vince Young, though we are both hopeful that new additions to the O-Line and receiving corps will allow Carr to develop into the QB that many projected upon his selection four years ago. We agree that the Mario Williams pick was the correct pick from a football perspective. The Texans' "need" at running back was clearly nowhere near as desperate as the need for a pass-rusher on the defensive line, especially considering Kubes' history of obtaining above-average production from lesser-known players at that position. Combine the "need" factor, Kubiak's impressive history, Domanick Davis' presence and Bush's apparent contractual demands, and I believe that under the circumstances (and excluding Vince Young as a possibility), Mario Williams was absolutely the proper pick. So now that we've set the stage, let's tackle the argument that Tim poses, which is that the Texans botched the pick by selecting Williams #1 rather than trading down to #2.
If you're the Texans and you've decided that Mario Williams is your pick, then you know that you will most likely have to own one of the first two picks in the draft in order to assure that you will be able to get your man. Virtually every pundit pontificating prior to the draft listed Williams as one of the top two overall players (with Bush) and the number one overall defensive prospect. Even if you thought you could get Mario at #3, the Titans knew that they were going to be able to get either Vince Young or Matt Leinart at #3, so they had no reason to give up picks to move up. If Houston traded down to #4 as many had dreamed possible prior to the draft (yours truly included), then the odds that you would be able to get Super Mario seem awfully slim. As such, the Texans' only chance to obtain the best of both worlds (add a pick via trade and still get Mario) was to swap spots with New Orleans.
For argument's sake, I will agree that it seems that the Texans could have held out until the very last moment in hopes that the Saints would make a last-minute trade offer worth accepting. However, neogtiations had been theoretically possible for months and had produced nothing, and from a PR perspective, the Texans understandably did not want to be perceived as deceiving their fan base by proceeding under the perception that Bush was going to be their pick, only to then stun their trusting fanbase at 12:15 Eastern on Saturday by ripping the proverbial rug out and selecting Mario. Instead, they hoped that signing Mario on Friday night would be a sign of confidence to their fans that they were taking the man that the organization wanted most.
Here's how I think the negotiations played out. Friday night, the Texans called the Saints and said, "We're not taking Bush, but we're entertaining offers from other teams for the #1 pick. Do you have any interest?" The Saints' answer was, "No thanks. You've already proclaimed that you're going to draft either Mario or Reggie, so if you don't take Reggie, you must want Mario, and we know that you won't be trading down below #2 because you won't be able to get Mario below #2. Therefore, we'll hold out with the knowledge that we'll either be able to draft Bush #2 or dangle the chance to draft Bush in the eyes of the Jets and Niners, both of whom will certainly be interested."
If the Saints thought that the Texans were going to draft Reggie Bush, then they appeared comfortable drafting either D'Brickashaw Ferguson or Mario Williams at #2 or dealing the #2 pick to a team looking for a QB, enabling them to add picks. If the Saints thought that the Texans were not going to draft Bush, then they become able to choose between drafting Bush or dangling Bush's talents in front of New York and San Francisco. Under either scenario, it would be completely illogical for the Saints to consider giving up picks to the Texans, as appreciated as it would have been to us Texans fans. They stood to make out very well no matter what the Texans did, and that's why the Texans' only option was to take Williams #1.
If you're the Texans and you've decided that Mario Williams is your pick, then you know that you will most likely have to own one of the first two picks in the draft in order to assure that you will be able to get your man. Virtually every pundit pontificating prior to the draft listed Williams as one of the top two overall players (with Bush) and the number one overall defensive prospect. Even if you thought you could get Mario at #3, the Titans knew that they were going to be able to get either Vince Young or Matt Leinart at #3, so they had no reason to give up picks to move up. If Houston traded down to #4 as many had dreamed possible prior to the draft (yours truly included), then the odds that you would be able to get Super Mario seem awfully slim. As such, the Texans' only chance to obtain the best of both worlds (add a pick via trade and still get Mario) was to swap spots with New Orleans.
For argument's sake, I will agree that it seems that the Texans could have held out until the very last moment in hopes that the Saints would make a last-minute trade offer worth accepting. However, neogtiations had been theoretically possible for months and had produced nothing, and from a PR perspective, the Texans understandably did not want to be perceived as deceiving their fan base by proceeding under the perception that Bush was going to be their pick, only to then stun their trusting fanbase at 12:15 Eastern on Saturday by ripping the proverbial rug out and selecting Mario. Instead, they hoped that signing Mario on Friday night would be a sign of confidence to their fans that they were taking the man that the organization wanted most.
Here's how I think the negotiations played out. Friday night, the Texans called the Saints and said, "We're not taking Bush, but we're entertaining offers from other teams for the #1 pick. Do you have any interest?" The Saints' answer was, "No thanks. You've already proclaimed that you're going to draft either Mario or Reggie, so if you don't take Reggie, you must want Mario, and we know that you won't be trading down below #2 because you won't be able to get Mario below #2. Therefore, we'll hold out with the knowledge that we'll either be able to draft Bush #2 or dangle the chance to draft Bush in the eyes of the Jets and Niners, both of whom will certainly be interested."
If the Saints thought that the Texans were going to draft Reggie Bush, then they appeared comfortable drafting either D'Brickashaw Ferguson or Mario Williams at #2 or dealing the #2 pick to a team looking for a QB, enabling them to add picks. If the Saints thought that the Texans were not going to draft Bush, then they become able to choose between drafting Bush or dangling Bush's talents in front of New York and San Francisco. Under either scenario, it would be completely illogical for the Saints to consider giving up picks to the Texans, as appreciated as it would have been to us Texans fans. They stood to make out very well no matter what the Texans did, and that's why the Texans' only option was to take Williams #1.
posted by Scott | 7:21 PM
3 Comments:
Nice post. That said, I think you're giving way too much credit to Texans management. If they even had an inkling that Bush wasn't going to be the guy (and by all accounts they had thought that for awhile, what with the VY and Mario considerations), they should have aggressively pursued trade talks long before the night before the draft. Personally, I think Bush was the guy until Thursday night. This stance is supported by the telling fact that Mario's agent didn't even submit a counterproposal to Casserly until then; he was sure that his client was simply being used as leverage and had no chance of actually being picked first overall. Frankly, I think Bush's contract demands were so ridiculous that management did not believe resolution was possible before the draft. Instead of getting past that unpleasantness, they hastily shifted gears and moved to Plan B. Mario, ecstatic over the opportunity not to play in Nawleans, quickly fell into line.
I don't think instilling confidence in the fan base was ever a consideration. McNair & Co. knew they'd have egg all over their faces if they took anyone but VY or Bush; no amount of confidence would have been instilled in the mob even if they had tumbled to the conclusion that Mario was the best choice months ago. Failing to pick Vince or Reggie would not (and will not) be accepted by the fan base any time in the immediate future. In sum, I think the Texans were completely unprepared for the possibility that they might not be able to get a deal done with Bush before the draft. When that became reality, they panicked and reacted. Had they exercised even a moderate amount of foresight, this could have been avoided.
I just threw up on my keyboard after seeing Ted's revisionist Texans draft. A franchise LT and a skilled DB? Who needs that?
If the Texans were offered that deal and passed it up, then they are destined to be a terrible franchise. I can't imagine that they did, though, especially now that hindsight indicates that they were not afraid to tick off their fanbase by passing on Vince AND Reggie in favor of a 'better fit'. Ted's scenario would have clearly caused less of a PR nightmare than Mario because (a) you're not using the #1 pick on someone other than the two most dynamic skill position players in the draft, (b) you're adding a number of first-day picks and (c) the O-line was a well-publicized area of need. Logically, there's no way the Texans would have taken the path they did if Ted's alternative was available, which is basically what I've been saying.
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