Why the Astros WILL NOT Trade for Adam Dunn
That's right...the trade that has been dominating hearts, minds, and Houston sports talk radio ain't gonna happen. There are myriad reasons a deal for the Texas Ex won't go down by July 31st. Although I was one of the biggest proponents of this deal (assuming, of course, the Reds were stricken with a sudden case of logic and stopped demanding the Astros include Jose Cruz's retired jersey in the swap), I am now firmly entrenched in the other camp. Quite frankly, a deal just isn't necessary. The three big reasons this deal is deader than SMU football:
1. The 'Stros are just playing way too well right now. Unlike when Gerry pulled the trigger on the Beltran deal last June, the Astros are playing excellent baseball and have momentum on their side. In other words, the timing isn't right for a big trade. On the recently completed road trip, the boys went 7-4; that's a pretty damn successful trip. Why would you want to fix it if it isn't broken? Granted, the sweep at the hands of the Cards was ugly, but the bounce-back against the Nats was huge. If I'm T-Poo and Uncle Drayton, I'm keeping my options open and actively looking for a lefthander to bolster the bullpen. But I'm also thinking that this team is proving that it's good enough to get to the postseason in its current state. With Berkman finally starting to get his stroke back, it's like you've added another bat to the lineup already. There's just no need to acquire another big stick at the cost the Reds are asking.
2. Team chemistry is one of those intangibles that we probably don't pay enough attention to. Simply put, the 2005 Houston Astros are not a fantasy baseball squad. You can't just plug players in and expect them to play well together immediately. You need guys that enjoy playing with each other and are willing to cheer everyone on. I'm a pretty cynical guy, but I was genuinely moved yesterday when I saw the dugout's reaction to Bruntlett's HR. Here's a guy who doesn't play much and barely holds down one of the last roster spots on the team, but you would have thought he won Game 7 yesterday by his teammates' reaction. Biggio was the first one out of the dugout and was sporting a bigger smile on his face than if he had hit it out himself. Ensberg was laughing and shouting at Bruntlett, and for a second it was easy to forget who the All-Star was. You can't fake that stuff. Given that the clubhouse dynamic seems to be so positive (and more importantly, that it's producing wins), why would you risk tampering with it by bringing in another personality?
3. The Reds remain completely unreasonable in their asking price for Dunn. Ultimately, I think this will be the downfall of any Dunn-to-Houston deal. I've read that the Reds want two major-leaguers and a top prospect. There's simply no way that the 'Stros will bite on that given their current success. A month ago, they might have jettisoned Chris Burke to do the deal, but in light of his torrent July, I can't see them bailing on him now. Further, if the last two years have taught Uncle Drayton anything, it's that good pitching will always result in a competitive team. As such, I can't see the 'Stros throwing Patton or Nieve into a deal for Dunn.
The 'Stros have clawed their way back into contention for the wild card. I say we should let the guys who pulled out of the hole try to see what else they can do.
1. The 'Stros are just playing way too well right now. Unlike when Gerry pulled the trigger on the Beltran deal last June, the Astros are playing excellent baseball and have momentum on their side. In other words, the timing isn't right for a big trade. On the recently completed road trip, the boys went 7-4; that's a pretty damn successful trip. Why would you want to fix it if it isn't broken? Granted, the sweep at the hands of the Cards was ugly, but the bounce-back against the Nats was huge. If I'm T-Poo and Uncle Drayton, I'm keeping my options open and actively looking for a lefthander to bolster the bullpen. But I'm also thinking that this team is proving that it's good enough to get to the postseason in its current state. With Berkman finally starting to get his stroke back, it's like you've added another bat to the lineup already. There's just no need to acquire another big stick at the cost the Reds are asking.
2. Team chemistry is one of those intangibles that we probably don't pay enough attention to. Simply put, the 2005 Houston Astros are not a fantasy baseball squad. You can't just plug players in and expect them to play well together immediately. You need guys that enjoy playing with each other and are willing to cheer everyone on. I'm a pretty cynical guy, but I was genuinely moved yesterday when I saw the dugout's reaction to Bruntlett's HR. Here's a guy who doesn't play much and barely holds down one of the last roster spots on the team, but you would have thought he won Game 7 yesterday by his teammates' reaction. Biggio was the first one out of the dugout and was sporting a bigger smile on his face than if he had hit it out himself. Ensberg was laughing and shouting at Bruntlett, and for a second it was easy to forget who the All-Star was. You can't fake that stuff. Given that the clubhouse dynamic seems to be so positive (and more importantly, that it's producing wins), why would you risk tampering with it by bringing in another personality?
3. The Reds remain completely unreasonable in their asking price for Dunn. Ultimately, I think this will be the downfall of any Dunn-to-Houston deal. I've read that the Reds want two major-leaguers and a top prospect. There's simply no way that the 'Stros will bite on that given their current success. A month ago, they might have jettisoned Chris Burke to do the deal, but in light of his torrent July, I can't see them bailing on him now. Further, if the last two years have taught Uncle Drayton anything, it's that good pitching will always result in a competitive team. As such, I can't see the 'Stros throwing Patton or Nieve into a deal for Dunn.
The 'Stros have clawed their way back into contention for the wild card. I say we should let the guys who pulled out of the hole try to see what else they can do.
posted by Anonymous | 9:17 AM
7 Comments:
If the Astros' goal is simply to win the wildcard, then they are locked in a 7 team race. Atlanta, Philly, NY, and Florida are all nearly as hot as the Astros. The Astros have gone 1-5 against the Braves, 2-4 against the Mets, 1-2 against the Fish and have yet to play the Phillies (until tonight). This fails to mention what I mentioned in a previous post, that the Astros are 2-9 v. St. Louis.
The Astros have done a commendable job of beating up on the bottom feeders of the NL in order to make a climb up the wildcard standings. However, certainly the STL series serves as a stark reminder that there is a fine line between a good team and a great team. The status quo, as cute and giggly as Tim witnesses it, may be good enough to win the wildcard (I doubt it). But it certainly is not good enough to win a series without the addition of at least one serious bat. The cuddly little huggables like Burke and Bruntlett have done their part, but it's time for Uncle Drayton to step up to the plate if he wants to really have a season worth remembering.
How much of that take is colored by the Pinko Red glasses that demand your beloved 'Natti get a king's ransom for your wayward slugger? You just want Uncle Drayton to hand the farm over.
Zero. Strangely, as a Reds fan, I am very optimistic, partly based on the rather impressive return received in exchange for a 2 month rental of 35 year old Joe Randa and somewhat based on the lingering effects of a weekend wine binge, that the Reds front office's tectonic-like pace on the trade front may actually prove be the result of cautious intelligence rather than paralyzing ineptitude. My hope is that the Reds will trade any and all of Casey and Aurilia (and maybe even Milton) and build around Dunn, Griffey, Kearns and Pena, who are the unquestionable foundation of the NL's top-scoring offense.
Dunn's 3 HR barrage this weekend leaves him with a .979 OPS, 2nd to only Prince Albert in the NL, and for the simpletons who still bicker about 10-12 hits per season (read: batting average), the Big Donkey's got 20 hits in 72 at-bats in July, 14 of which are for extra bases. By the way, Brian at Redleg Nation (http://redlegnation.com/2005/07/25/the-dave-kingman-comparison/) today brilliantly illustrates the historical relevance of Adam Dunn. Those who like to offer up comparisons of Deer and Kingman would be more accurate to consider names like Musial, Mays and Aaron. Hopefully, the Astros will choke on the bit and fail to pull the trigger on a deal that is likely imperative if they want 2005 to be remembered as something other than the Year of Beltran.
I realize Reds fans haven't seen meaningful summer baseball played since the days of Sabo and Rijo, but comparing Dunn to Willie Mays and Hank Aaron is heretical.
The Reds seem to have made out well on the Randa trade. No one wants Griffey. Dunn is probably their most attractive trade bait, but they're asking too much for him. The Natti can't afford him in 2007, so they might as well get something for him now before he walks to H-town and they're left with nothing but memories.
Before you throw down the 'heretical' gauntlet, you should check out the article that I referenced earlier. Dunn ranks 11th all-time in career OPS for players 25 and under with 2500 plate appearances, behind only Pujols, Musial, Mays, Ott, Vlad, F-Rob, Dick Allen, Eddie Mathews, Joe Medwick and Hammerin' Hank. That's right...11th ALL-TIME. He's 25, he gets on base 40+% of his PA's and he's already a lock for 40+ HR yearly...and did I mention that he's 25?
Whether you're able to comprehend it or not, the Reds currently own the rights to one of the greatest young power hitters to ever play the game. The numbers prove it, regardless of the magnitude of your witty rhetoric. The Astros will either realize that and pay accordingly, or they'll continue to sit by the wayside waiting for Adam Everett's Creatin to kick in. As a Reds' fan, I'm praying for the latter.
By the way, may I mention that the Astros have not played in a World Series "since the days of Adam and Eve". My memories of 1990 seem quite fresh compared to the Astros' epic absence from the Fall Classic.
Ahh, the ultimate crutch for a non-Astros fan. We'll see who's still playing in October.
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