Why the Astros WILL Trade for Adam Dunn
Richard Justice's column in today's Houston Chronicle speculates that the Reds' asking price is going to be too high and the Astros' wildcard hopes too faint for a deal to go down bringing the Pride of New Caney, Adam Dunn, to the Astros. I have wavered, and I am willing to now make a final stance...well, sort of final.
The Astros have a tough start to the second half - 3 in St. Louis, 4 in Pittsburgh and 4 in Washington. While these are road games, the Astros should win 2 out of 3 in St. Louis because they have their pitching set up perfectly, and their top 3, when pitching anywhere near their potential, are as good as it gets. The Pirates are 10 games below .500. The Nationals have lost 6 out of 8, and nobody believes that they're really as good as their record. The Astros, if truly a wildcard contender, should certainly be able to manage a .500 road trip or better. That would get them back to Minute Maid Park for an 8-game homestand to close out the month. A .500 road trip would quite likely be enough to convince the Astros' front office that this team deserves a shot at the wildcard, much like last year's squad did.
I believe that Drayton McLane wants desperately to relive last summer's run at the wildcard, and why shouldn't he? The arrival of Carlos Beltran and the team's incredible run down the stretch attracted sellout crowds and large television audiences almost every night. Roger Clemens, despite the signing of his oldest son to a contract with the Astros, will not get too many more chances at the postseason, and he certainly has pitched well enough to inspire the front office to make a deal. Nothing would better crown Drayton's boundless love affair with Craig Biggio than a World Series visit.
I think Drayton is not only willing, but eager for the Astros to make another BIG splash at the trade deadline. I believe that he's becoming convinced that bushels of pitching prospects and emphasis on player development don't win championships (contrast Houston's postseason prowess with that of New York and Boston). Add to that the fact that both times he's made a huge trade at the deadline (Big Unit, Beltran), every seat has been filled, and the team has made its deepest postseason runs in franchise history.
Sure Tim Purpura has said repeatedly in recent days that he does not intend to "mortgage the farm" in order to win this season, but if the GM really made such calls in Houston, Gerry Hunsicker would still have a job. Drayton makes calls like this, and I think he's going to not just approve a deal for Dunn, I think that he's going to demand a deal for Dunn, no matter the cost. That could be enough to make Purpura collapse in agony, knowing his penchant for player development. But I don't think Drayton's all that concerned with what the so-called "baseball people" think. He's a hands-on owner, and I don't expect that he'll let any of his underlings interfere with what he thinks is best for the club. I don't think he believes that losing Fernando Nieve and Troy Patton is any worse than losing John Buck and Octavio Dotel, especially when you consider that Patton and Nieve are much farther from being major-league ready.
The Astros are not the only suitor for Dunn, and to spice up the bidding even more, the reported competitors include the Astros' fiercest NL Central rivals - the Cards and the Cubs. There's an argument that the Astros don't need Dunn, but can they sit idly by and let their archrivals acquire him?
Finally, Adam Dunn would not be just a non-controversial, productive addition to this team, but quite likely would become a cornerstone for the franchise as well as a local hero. Jeff Bagwell's an icon in this city, despite being a New Englander. Imagine if he grew up in the outskirts of Houston! The marketing potential for a homegrown dynamic duo of Adam Dunn and Lance Berkman is nearly limitless. Dunn will almost certainly sign a long-term deal with the club, making the potential for another "Beltran" situation minimal.
I think that in the end, the Astros will part with Zeke Astacio, Chris Burke and two pitching prospects (Nieve and Buchholz/Barthmeier/Patton) for Adam Dunn. I think that the combination of last year's magical run, the twilight of the Rocket and Biggio's career and the pursuit of the biggest prize of the deadline (Dunn) by two of the Astros' top rivals will all add up to Adam Dunn being an Astro come August 1. The only thing that I think could prevent that would be a disastrous road trip out of the All-Star break. The team's destiny is in its own hands.
The Astros have a tough start to the second half - 3 in St. Louis, 4 in Pittsburgh and 4 in Washington. While these are road games, the Astros should win 2 out of 3 in St. Louis because they have their pitching set up perfectly, and their top 3, when pitching anywhere near their potential, are as good as it gets. The Pirates are 10 games below .500. The Nationals have lost 6 out of 8, and nobody believes that they're really as good as their record. The Astros, if truly a wildcard contender, should certainly be able to manage a .500 road trip or better. That would get them back to Minute Maid Park for an 8-game homestand to close out the month. A .500 road trip would quite likely be enough to convince the Astros' front office that this team deserves a shot at the wildcard, much like last year's squad did.
I believe that Drayton McLane wants desperately to relive last summer's run at the wildcard, and why shouldn't he? The arrival of Carlos Beltran and the team's incredible run down the stretch attracted sellout crowds and large television audiences almost every night. Roger Clemens, despite the signing of his oldest son to a contract with the Astros, will not get too many more chances at the postseason, and he certainly has pitched well enough to inspire the front office to make a deal. Nothing would better crown Drayton's boundless love affair with Craig Biggio than a World Series visit.
I think Drayton is not only willing, but eager for the Astros to make another BIG splash at the trade deadline. I believe that he's becoming convinced that bushels of pitching prospects and emphasis on player development don't win championships (contrast Houston's postseason prowess with that of New York and Boston). Add to that the fact that both times he's made a huge trade at the deadline (Big Unit, Beltran), every seat has been filled, and the team has made its deepest postseason runs in franchise history.
Sure Tim Purpura has said repeatedly in recent days that he does not intend to "mortgage the farm" in order to win this season, but if the GM really made such calls in Houston, Gerry Hunsicker would still have a job. Drayton makes calls like this, and I think he's going to not just approve a deal for Dunn, I think that he's going to demand a deal for Dunn, no matter the cost. That could be enough to make Purpura collapse in agony, knowing his penchant for player development. But I don't think Drayton's all that concerned with what the so-called "baseball people" think. He's a hands-on owner, and I don't expect that he'll let any of his underlings interfere with what he thinks is best for the club. I don't think he believes that losing Fernando Nieve and Troy Patton is any worse than losing John Buck and Octavio Dotel, especially when you consider that Patton and Nieve are much farther from being major-league ready.
The Astros are not the only suitor for Dunn, and to spice up the bidding even more, the reported competitors include the Astros' fiercest NL Central rivals - the Cards and the Cubs. There's an argument that the Astros don't need Dunn, but can they sit idly by and let their archrivals acquire him?
Finally, Adam Dunn would not be just a non-controversial, productive addition to this team, but quite likely would become a cornerstone for the franchise as well as a local hero. Jeff Bagwell's an icon in this city, despite being a New Englander. Imagine if he grew up in the outskirts of Houston! The marketing potential for a homegrown dynamic duo of Adam Dunn and Lance Berkman is nearly limitless. Dunn will almost certainly sign a long-term deal with the club, making the potential for another "Beltran" situation minimal.
I think that in the end, the Astros will part with Zeke Astacio, Chris Burke and two pitching prospects (Nieve and Buchholz/Barthmeier/Patton) for Adam Dunn. I think that the combination of last year's magical run, the twilight of the Rocket and Biggio's career and the pursuit of the biggest prize of the deadline (Dunn) by two of the Astros' top rivals will all add up to Adam Dunn being an Astro come August 1. The only thing that I think could prevent that would be a disastrous road trip out of the All-Star break. The team's destiny is in its own hands.
posted by Scott | 10:03 AM
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