Memo to Drayton: Say "No" to Dunn

Back on June 10th, I blogged that the Astros must win 9 of their last 12 games in June to foster any hopes of postseason play. They won exactly 9 of those last 12 and have proceeded to win 6 out of their first 7 in July. A 3-1 finish to the homestand heading into the All-Star Break will have the Astros 1 game over .500, which is astonishing.

The Astros' improved play as of late, combined with the annual planning for a firesale in Cincinnati, have sparked rumors of a blockbuster Adam Dunn-to-Houston trade. Even with the incompetency currently occupying the Reds' front office, such a deal will certainly cost the Astros at least 3 decent propsects, most likely pitching prospects. It is my feeling that such a trade would be a very bad idea for the Astros, and that is not just because I am a desperate Reds' fan.

First, if it is true that Dunn is seriously interested in coming to Houston after reaching free agency in the fall of 2006, the Astros have no need to part with potential pieces to their future big league pitching staff in order to obtain Dunn's services for the long-term. Dunn would admittedly bring some legitimacy to the Astros' 2005 postseason hopes if added to the everyday lineup, but most dire-hard Astros' followers would have to admit that a World Series run is quite unlikely in 2005, with or without Adam Dunn. If you're potentially going to have a shot at Dunn next fall without giving up a single prospect, is it worth 3 quality prospects for a year-and-a-half of Dunn? Unless Dunn's arrival virtually cements a World Series berth in 2005 or 2006, the answer is no.

In addition, last night's game serves as a stark reminder as to the fragility of the Astros' most impressive feature: its starting pitching. Roy O will be the anchor of this staff for years to come. Roger's return is certainly questionable for 2006 and beyond. Pettitte continues to shine when healthy, but unfortunately, his health must be considered a substantial concern based on the consistent tightness in his left elbow and forearm. Brandon Backe had a solid end to 2004, but he has struggled considerably in 2005, both with his performance and apparently with his health, as he too has admitted to feeling considerable pain in his throwing arm. The fifth slot is currently occupied by Wandy Rodriguez, he of the 6.55 ERA. Should any of the above go down for an extended period of time, their likely replacements should not make Astros' fans feel all that comfortable. Astacio has been shelled repeatedly everywhere north of Kissimmee in 2005, Duckworth is still Duckworth, and Taylor Buchholz is 6-0 at AAA but still sports a 4+ ERA and only 41 K's in 68+ innings.

The gist of what I'm saying is this: the amazing performance of the Astros' starting pitching in the first-half of 2005 is most likely only going to be a short-term phenomenon based on both age and health concerns. If for some reason the Astros really could acquire Dunn for 3 Duckworth-type prospects, they would have to consider it. But the Astros must realize that should they mortgage the proverbial pitching farm for a slugger like AD in 2005, they may well look like Dunn's then-ex-team, the all-hit, no-pitch Reds, in 2006 and beyond.