BP Takes on Morgan Ensberg

Marc Normandin has written a very thorough analysis ($) and projection piece on Baseball Prospectus this week regarding Astros 3B (?) Morgan Ensberg. Trivia Question #1 from the article: What three USC Trojans rank ahead of Morgan on the all-time HR list for the school? Answer at the bottom of the page...

As for the look at Ensberg himself, Normandin takes a look at every season in Ensberg's professional career, beginning with his pro debut in 1999 for Auburn (Low A). One interesting note, though not that surprising, is that the percent of balls that Ensberg pulls to LF has increased every season, from 20% of fly balls in 2004 to 30% of fly balls in 2006 and from 39% of line drives in 2004 to 66% of line drives in 2006. BP's prediction formula, PECOTA, projects a good season from Ensberg in 2007 (.263/.374/.520), though the writer admits that it is difficult to project how Ensberg will bounce back from his shoulder issues that obviously bothered him in 2005. Pitchers seemed quite capable of blasting a fastball past him on any count, and Ensberg was visibly guessing at the plate, apparently in an attempt to compensate from his loss in bat speed. Ensberg at times has begun to remind me of Adam Dunn at the plate; his plummeting batting average but high walk totals and power make him a frustrating, though dangerous, offensive performer.

ANSWER: Thanks to astute H-Town Sports reader Brent for pointing out that I failed to include the answer to the trivia question: 1. Mark McGwire, 2. Geoff Jenkins and 3. Eric Munson.