Enough of This Season...Where Will the Texans Draft?
You know you're a Texans fan when you're analyzing draft position when the majority of teams are fighting for playoff spots. So while everyone else is worrying about division titles and wild card berths, H-Town Sports will take a look at how the other half lives. Actually, the dregs of the NFL this season are comprised of seven (7) teams. Here they are, along with their current record and remaining opponents:
1. Detroit (2-12): CHI, @DAL
2. Oakland (2-12): KC, @NYJ
3. Tampa Bay (3-11): @CLE, SEA
4. Arizona (4-10): @SF, @SD
5. Cleveland (4-10): TB, @HOU
6. Houston (4-10): IND, CLE
7. Washington (5-9): @STL, NYG
And here's my prediction on their final records:
Detroit (2-14)
Oakland (2-14)
Tampa Bay (3-13)
Arizona (4-12)
Cleveland (5-11)
Houston (5-11)
Washington (5-11)
Aside from my admittedly absurd selection of the Texans to defeat the Browns in the season finale, I don't think there's a whole lot of room for debate, given the remaining opponents for each team. Regardless, the Texans should be picking somewhere between fourth and sixth overall come April 28, 2007. And yes, I have already marked my calendar. It's my Super Bowl.
{NOTE--Thanks to reader Bouj, who opined as follows:
"FYI the draft tiebreaker is strength-of-schedule, not head-to-head (so no one can throw games). Under your scenario, the Texans and Cleveland would be close for #6/7 and WAS picks #5, but the edge probably goes to Cleveland because the Texans plays in a strong division. So Houston probably picks 7th unless something weird happens. Incidentally, the Cardinals have a weak SOS. Remember, being bad with a weak SOS gives you a better spot in the draft."
I stand corrected. We can't even lose right.}
1. Detroit (2-12): CHI, @DAL
2. Oakland (2-12): KC, @NYJ
3. Tampa Bay (3-11): @CLE, SEA
4. Arizona (4-10): @SF, @SD
5. Cleveland (4-10): TB, @HOU
6. Houston (4-10): IND, CLE
7. Washington (5-9): @STL, NYG
And here's my prediction on their final records:
Detroit (2-14)
Oakland (2-14)
Tampa Bay (3-13)
Arizona (4-12)
Cleveland (5-11)
Houston (5-11)
Washington (5-11)
Aside from my admittedly absurd selection of the Texans to defeat the Browns in the season finale, I don't think there's a whole lot of room for debate, given the remaining opponents for each team. Regardless, the Texans should be picking somewhere between fourth and sixth overall come April 28, 2007. And yes, I have already marked my calendar. It's my Super Bowl.
{NOTE--Thanks to reader Bouj, who opined as follows:
"FYI the draft tiebreaker is strength-of-schedule, not head-to-head (so no one can throw games). Under your scenario, the Texans and Cleveland would be close for #6/7 and WAS picks #5, but the edge probably goes to Cleveland because the Texans plays in a strong division. So Houston probably picks 7th unless something weird happens. Incidentally, the Cardinals have a weak SOS. Remember, being bad with a weak SOS gives you a better spot in the draft."
I stand corrected. We can't even lose right.}
posted by Anonymous | 9:48 AM
4 Comments:
FYI the draft tiebreaker is strength-of-schedule, not head-to-head (so no one can throw games).
Under your scenario, the Texans and Cleveland would be close for #6/7 and WAS picks #5, but the edge probably goes to Cleveland because the Texans plays in a strong division. So Houston probably picks 7th unless something weird happens. Incidentally, the Cardinals have a weak SOS. Remember, being bad with a weak SOS gives you a better spot in the draft.
Thanks for the clarification, Bouj. I stand corrected. Either way, it's pretty sad that we're discussing draft position in December.
I think the Texans can't go wrong with taking an OL or DB with their first pick. If Peterson's there, you'd have to think hard about him, but I seriously doubt that he'll fall that far.
The only thing I'm fairly certain of is that their top pick won't be a QB; I think Kubiak and Smith will try to snag one of those in the second or third round.
The only positions that I think are off limit in the 1st round for the Texans are WR, TE and K/P. I also don't like any of the projected draft-eligible QBs enough to use a first-round pick. Any DL, OL, RB, DB or LB that Rick Smith deems worthy of a first-round pick gets my full support. After the first-round, every pick must necessarily become best available player, regardless of position.
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