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Houston Sports Blog - Real sports cities have TWO Conference USA teams

Tuesday, October 04, 2005

College Football Picks - Week Six

Week Six already! 3-2 last weekend to run the record to 14-10 overall ATS. I'm holding off from playing the Red River Shootout (UT 34, OU 17) so that I can most fully soak in what should be a memorable afternoon. On to this week's picks, which you'll notice, are quite numerous:

Georgia Tech -4.5 v. N.C. State
The Wolfpack have only covered the spread in four of their last 17 conference games, and the Wreck has covered 10 of the last 12 tilts between these two rivals. This game calculates to a score of -20.369, which is completely off the charts. All four of the major power rankings systems which I consult see this as a 9-point GT victory. This is a Thursday night home game, and GT should be out for blood after an embarrassing rout in Blacksburg.

Ohio State -3 at Penn State
If Ohio State's TE had hung on to Justin Zwick's late would-be TD toss, or if Jim Tressel had left Troy Smith in at QB, the Buckeyes would be in Texas' shiny shoes. Instead, they've been forgotten about on a national scale. Penn State needed a miracle to defeat Northwestern, and despite what will surely be a rowdy crowd in Happy Valley, the Buckeyes should make relatively easy work of the Nittany Lions.

Colordao -3 v. Texas A&M
The Ags continue to get the respect of Vegas' linemakers for reasons beyond my comprehension. Baylor is a good team, one who Vegas does not truly appreciate, but despite all of the emotion and revenge factors at play last Saturday in College Station, the Ags came out flat and were completely out-played by the Bears. The Buffs continue to fly under the radar, with their only setback being a decent showing in South Beach. This one's huge for both teams, and the Buffs should be sky-high off their crush job at Stillwater, while the Aggies have to be (justifiably) unsure of just how good they truly are.

Wyoming -6.5 v. TCU
It's pretty simple, really. The Cowboys are 11-3 ATS at home, while the Toads are 5-11 ATS on the road. On top of that, Wyoming is playing great football right now, and I believe that TCU is overrated. The season-opening win at OU was still a great one for the program, but it has been put in perspective thanks to the Sooners' play subsequent. A loss at SMU speaks for itself, Utah has been a tremendous disappointment and BYU is not Jim McMahon's BYU any longer. Last week's win over New Mexico was certainly a solid one, but I do not think that the Frogs have what it takes to keep this game within a TD.

Houston -1.5 v. Tulane (at Lafayette)
Art Briles' Cougars hung tough versus Oregon and made a valiant showing on the road at UTEP. Last week's win at Tulsa finally gave the program the confidence that the close calls of weeks prior are not immune from becoming victories, and I think that it will give the whole program a giant shot in the arm. Tulane has done nothing worthy of positive mention in 2005, and it must be tremendously difficult for its players and coaches to maintain focus during such a nomadic season. I like the Coogs to take care of the Green Wave rather easily.

Baylor +9 at Iowa State
Baylor is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 outings, while the Cyclones are 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games. Iowa State's win over Iowa also looks much less impressive now, especially considering that the Hawkeyes were without Drew Tate for much of the game. Baylor handled the same Army team that Iowa State struggled to put away, and I think Guy Morris' troops will have nothing to lose in Ames on Saturday. Look not only for a Baylor cover, but I believe that they will come away with the straight-up win.

Florida State -20.5 v. Wake Forest
Wake Forest was actually out first-downed 28-17 in last week's win over a beleagured Clemson squad, and last year's close contest versus the Seminoles was (a) at Winston-Salem, (b) accomplished by a much better Demon Deacon team and (c) courtesy of 3 FSU turnovers. Florida State is resting eagerly after a rout of Syracuse, and the Demon Deacons had better home for 13 Seminole TO's in this one.

Hawaii +5 at Louisiana Tech
The Bulldogs are 0-8 ATS coming off of a conference win, and Hawaii has handled them easily in each of the past two seasons. The Rainbows should have beaten Boise State last Saturday rather handily, but BSU escaped with a three-point win. Assuming the Rainbows bounce back, they should not just cover, but defeat La Tech on the road. The power rankings that I consult suggest that the spread should be Hawaii -6, not +5.


Blogger Scott said...

A few remarks:

Ga Tech absolutely dominated NC State. That was a disastrous loss, but a loss nonetheless.

I was very impressed by Penn State's defense on Saturday night. I was surprised that they were able to contain the Buckeye's talented trio of Smith, Holmes and Ginn, although the Bucks deserve a lot of the credit/blame for failing to be more imaginative with the football.

TCU needed SEVEN Cowboy turnovers to win that game. Another game that I still feel was a smart play, but a loss nonetheless.

Art Briles' Cougars are a SOLID football team. Their loss to Oregon looks more impressive after OU hung with USC for a half and beat ASU on the road, and they have a real chance at chasing down the C-USA title.

I do not know how high the ceiling is for Guy Morris' Bears, but I do know that he should be commended for already accomplishing what was thought to be impossible: quickly putting together a respectable, competitive program at Baylor while stacked with A&M, Tech, OU and the Horns in the Big XII South.

FSU allowed a last-second TD drive to the Deacs, which convinced me that Adrian McPherson was up to his old tricks.

Never EVER again will I take Hawaii in a game played in one of the contiguous 48 states.

Mon Oct 10, 08:55:00 AM  

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