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Wednesday, September 14, 2005

College Football Picks - Week Three

Fresh off a 4-1 week ATS (6-3 for the season), there are a lot of intriguing games (Tennessee/Florida, Kentucky/Indiana, Vandy/Ole Miss, Wisconsin/UNC, etc.) that seem to have inaccurate lines, but I just do not have good feelings about the majority of them. For example, I think that North Carolina is underrated and will be psyched up for their bout with the Badgers, who have had two home games against invisible defenses. However, every single "expert" picks Wisconsin to win by a TD at Chapel Hill. I may regret my hesitance, but in case I am missing something, I will stay away from that one. Here are five games that I do like this week:

North Texas (-4) v. Tulsa (Saturday 6:00 p.m. CDT)
North Texas is fresh off a huge win at Middle Tennessee State, and they are 8-2 ATS at home and 12-5 ATS as a favorite. Meanwhile, Tulsa is coming off a physical, disappointing loss at Oklahoma, which was preceded by a whipping at the hands of Lawrence Mulroney and Minnesota. Tulsa's D-line did not fare too well at handling the Golden Gophers or the Sooners, and I think that this third straight test may push them over the breaking point. I like North Texas rather easily in this one.

Toledo (-28.5) at Temple (Saturday 12:00 p.m. CDT)
I can hardly think of a bigger mismatch. Toledo is 10-3 ATS, 15-5 ATS on turf, and Temple is 1-9 ATS versus the MAC in recent years. Temple's D has allowed 128 points in two games, and Toledo's offense has scored 118 points in two games. On top of that, the public is 78-38 when moving the Temple line, and it has moved away from the Owls during the week. This game has 65-13 written all over it.

Idaho (+14) at Washington (Saturday 2:30 p.m. CDT)
Idaho has covered in each of their two games this season, while Washington has been disastrous. The Huskies are 6-17 ATS and 1-6 ATS in non-conference games and has failed to cover in either of their first two games of the season. Idaho gave Washington State and UNLV scares to start the season, and despite the loss of its starting running back, I like them to hang with Washington on the road.

Clemson (+7) v. Miami (Saturday 2:30 CDT)
Clemson is one of the nation's hottest teams, coming off of impressive wins over Texas A&M and Maryland. They beat Miami last year on the road, and they are 9-4 ATS as a dog and should have a great home-field advantage. Miami, meanwhile, looked very sluggish offensively versus Florida State and is 1-4 ATS coming off of a bye week.

Central Michigan (+22) at Penn State (Saturday 2:30 CDT)
I have gone back and forth on this one, but my decision was finalized upon realizing that not only do all signs point to the Chippewas, but I realized that no one in their right mind would pick the Nittany Lions to cover this spread, so I have to play on CMU. Central Michigan is 4-0 ATS as a 21.5> point dog, while Penn State is 1-4 ATS as a 21.5> point favorite. Some say CMU is due for a fall after an upset win at Miami Ohio last week, but I believe that said win will serve to inspire them and make this game even closer. Having played two road games, they will not be intimidated in Happy Valley, and Penn State's offense is unlikely to put up 30 or more points on CMU's defense, so as long as the Chips can muster 10 points, they should stay within the number.


Anonymous actionBERG said...

Definitely with you on that Idaho game, I think they might win it. Toledo should roll as well. Interesting about that North Texas game, I am going to look into that one a littlemore.

Fri Sep 16, 04:37:00 PM  

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