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Wednesday, September 21, 2005

College Football Picks - Week Four

Still limping from my 1-4 weekend and on my way out of town , I've taken a tip from Bobby McNair and have rearranged some things here at the U.S.S. Antigua. Less of an emphasis on Todd Beck's power ratings, and more of an emphasis on (a) three power rankings systems that have a combined 233-163 (58.8%) record and (b) my instincts. All of my picks are supported by both TBeck's score and each of the most successful power ratings, and by coincidence, are games which I like myself. Overall, I am sitting at .500 (7-7) for the season. Without further ado, here are my Picks of the Week:

Wisconsin (+3) v. Michigan
I'm still not quite certain why this line is what it is, but I'm not asking any questions. Wisconsin beat a talented Bowling Green team and won a tough non-conference roadie at UNC last weekend. Michigan has done nothing but lose at home to Notre Dame, and I do not see how their porous defense has much hope against the surprisingly potent Badger offense. Wisconsin has covered six of its last eight against the Wolverines, and I like Wisconsin straight-up in this nighttime home game, but I'll certainly take the points to be safe.

Tulsa (-1) v. Memphis
Again, this line surprises me. Memphis is decent, but they were less than impressive against a shaky Mississippi Rebels club to open the season. Tulsa has got to be on Cloud 9 after a near upset in Norman and an absolute spanking of North Texas (ouch) last Saturday. Seems to me that this is a game that Tulsa can certainly win, so I'll back the Golden Hurricane, despite its ominous nickname for us Houstonians.

Maryland (+3) at Wake Forest
I bought the hook in this one, but hopefully that was over-cautious on my part. Wake Forest has only covered once in its last ten games, while the Terps have covered nine of their last 13. Wake has struggled all year, and Maryland should be itching to get back on the field after last week's disappointing home loss to West Virginia.

North Carolina (+10) at N.C. State
UNC has been a much better team over the past two seasons than most of the country recognizes (9-4 ATS in ACC games), and they beat NCS in '04. N.C. State is a solid team, especially defensively, and the under may be the best play on this game. However, I can't imagine N.C. State running away and hiding from a decent Tar Heel team in a rivalry game like this.

Nevada (+18) at Colorado State
The Buffs are still living off their reputation from the Bradlee Van Pelt era and are fresh off a whipping by the Golden Gophers. Nevada is an improved, tough team coming off a solid victory over rival UNLV. I see this game coming down to the wire and find the 18 point spread to be laughable. Of course after my performance last week, maybe my picks provide the comedy for most.


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