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Tuesday, September 27, 2005

College Football Picks - Week Five

Off another 4-1 ATS week (11-8 ATS overall) and headed for a windwagon bound for the Bluegrass, here are my picks for Week Five:

Auburn (-13.5) v. South Carolina
Auburn is 8-1 over the past two Octobers, and they have bounced back nicely after their shocking opening loss to Georgia Tech. South Carolina did not match up very well against smashmouth football in their home game versus Alabama, and they are likely going to start a redshirt freshman at QB with regular starter Blake Mitchell nursing a sprained ankle. I do not see South Carolina's offense making a dent in the scoreboard in this one, with Auburn cruising to a 24-0 victory at home.

Duke (+6) v. Navy
Generally speaking, betting on Duke football is not a profitable proposition. This, however, is a system play, where all four rankings systems that I consider like Duke to cover the spread. Navy's three point loss at home to Stanford looks considerably less impressive after Stanford's subsequent home loss to UC-Davis, and this would be a big win for the Blue Devils. They may not pull it off, but I think that it will be a FG game, and I always like taking points at home in such a contest.

Tulsa (-3) v. Houston
I see no reason to de-board the Hurricane train. Houston did look better on the road at UTEP two Thursdays ago, but this is another system play, Tulsa has been playing very well as of late, and Houston's next big road win will be its first. I like Tulsa by about a TD.

North Carolina (-3.5) v. Utah
Again, the Tar Heels have treated me very well the last two weekends against Georgia Tech and NC State, and I like them here as well. Utah is 0-4 ATS in 2005 and embarrassed the Tar Heels on national TV in 2004. UNC is sky-high after last week's road win over the Wolfpack, and they will certainly have revenge on their minds against a still overrated Utes ballclub. I like UNC to win this game by double digits.

Maryland (+3.5) v. Virginia
The Cavs have been somewhat disappointing thus far, despite being undefeated. On the road over the past two seasons, UVA has been only 4-8 ATS. This is a game that the Terps must have to keep their division title hopes alive. Maryland has Temple on deck, whereas the Cavs have a date with Boston College. I like Maryland to win outright in a close game.


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